Consensus Mock Draft: Top 3 far from clear in first look after Draft lottery

Chet Holmgren, the 7-foot center from Gonzaga, is likely to go in the top 3 picks on Draft night.

Complete 2022 NBA Draft order

Some notes in our first look before the 2022 NBA Draft, where the Orlando Magic are on the clock with the No. 1 pick.

Remember, the Consensus Mock Draft is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to provide a solid estimate of how the Draft could play out (Last update: May 19, 3:04 a.m. ET):

  • In our first look at the best mock drafts around the internet, the theme seems to be uncertainty. There isn’t a consensus No. 1 pick like there’s been in past years (every mock had Cade Cunningham going first last season) and up and down the lottery there is much variation. Granted, this is the first look after the lottery, and things will come together after teams start meeting with players, but this is shaping up to be a very intriguing Draft.
  • The leading candidates for the No. 1 pick are Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero. There had been some early chatter about Jaden Ivey jumping, but that was only if certain teams needing a point guard landed the top pick. As it is, the Magic hold the pick and will likely take one of the three bigs, even though they’re well stocked in the frontcourt. Prognosticators seem split between Smith and Holmgren as the pick (seven have Smith, four have Holmgren and one lone mock has Banchero to Orlando).
  • Things could get interesting at No. 4, where the Sacramento Kings surprisingly landed on lottery night. The pick here would likely be Jaden Ivey if he’s available, but the Kings are pretty set in their backcourt with DeAaron Fox and Davion Mitchell, whom they took last season with the No. 9 pick. Ivey is an athletic point guard and the Pistons would be thrilled if he slips to them at No. 5. Will Sacramento grab the best player available or go toward finding the right fit for their roster?
  • One player seeing a lot of variation is Duke’s A.J. Griffin. The big man appears as high as No. 5 in one mock (SB Nation) and as low as No. 12 in another (USA Today). Between those two predictions, he shows up most commonly at No. 8 to the Pelicans. The Ringer calls him “one of the most talented scorers in the Draft” but also points out he missed time in high school due to knee and ankle injuries. It’s possible teams are waiting to see more on the talented shooter.
  • Unlike previous seasons, there’s not a single player in our lottery that is coming straight from international play. The closest we have to an international prospect is Australian Dyson Daniels, who is using the NBA G League route to the NBA. Daniels averaged 11.9 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists with the G League Ignite. Much like fellow Australian Josh Giddey, who was taken 6th overall last season, Daniels is a willing passer who could make an immediate impact in his first season.
  • Keegan Murray should be hearing his name in the middle of the lottery. The 6-foot-8 forward out of Iowa appears as high as No. 4 (ESPN/Net Scouts), but no lower than No. 8 (SB Nation). His most likely landing spots are the Pistons at No. 5 or Pacers at No. 6. He shows up nine times in those two slots.
  • Nine players appear in the lottery in all 12 mocks we survey: Smith, Holmgren, Banchero, Murray, Ivey, Sharpe, Griffin, Mathurin and Davis.

MOST COMMON PICKS

No. 1 (Magic): Jabari Smith (7)

No. 2 (Thunder): Chet Holmgren (7)

No. 3 (Rockets): Paolo Banchero (9)

No. 4 (Kings): Jaden Ivey (7)

No. 5 (Pistons): Jaden Ivey, Shaedon Sharpe (5)

No. 6 (Pacers): Keegan Murray (8)

No. 7 (Trail Blazers): Jalen Duren, A.J. Griffin, Bennedict Mathurin (4)

No. 8 (Pelicans): Jalen Duren, A.J. Griffin, Bennedict Mathurin (3)

No. 9 (Spurs): Jalen Duren (3)

No. 10 (Wizards): Johnny Davis (5)

No. 11 (Knicks): A.J. Griffin, Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin (3)

No. 12 (Thunder): Jeremy Sochan (4)

No. 13 (Hornets): Mark Williams (6)

No. 14 (Cavaliers): Malaki Branham (8)

Most common (above): Pick at which the player is most commonly projected, with number of mock drafts in parentheses. For example, Jabari Smith is projected to go 1st in seven of the 12 mock drafts listed below.


Top 14 (below): To calculate the consensus, we award 14 points for every mock draft in which the player went first overall, 13 for second, continuing to one point for the final lottery pick. The player with the highest point total represents the top overall selection, which is as follows:

1. Chet Holmgren | Orlando Magic

Gonzaga | Position: F/C | Height: 7-0
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 2 (7)

His length and size make him an elite shotblocker on defense, but his skinny frame could hurt him against larger post players.


2. Jabari Smith | Oklahoma City Thunder

Auburn | Position: F | Height: 6-10
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 1 (7)

Has the size and length and picture-perfect shot to become an elite scorer and the versatility on defense to become a two-way star.


3. Paolo Banchero | Houston Rockets

Duke | Position: F | Height: 6-10
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 3 (9)

His size and athletic ability make him a perfect fit in today’s NBA; should be able to contribute right away and eventually progress into a perennial All-Star.


4. Jaden Ivey | Sacramento Kings

Purdue | Position: G | Height: 6-4
Status: Sophomore
Most Common: 4 (7)

Ultra athletic guard in the mold of Ja Morant, he can create his own shot with a quick first step. Will need to improve defensively to become elite.


5. Shaedon Sharpe | Detroit Pistons

Kentucky | Position: SG | Height: 6-6
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 5 (5)

Athletic wing who can make a difference on both ends, with finishes around the rim and a reliable jump shot. Sat his freshman year at Kentucky, so the year layoff could affect his transition.


6. Keegan Murray | Indiana Pacers 

Iowa | Position: F | Height: 6-8
Status: Sophomore
Most Common: 6 (8)

Good decision maker with the intelligence and athleticism to become a reliable defender on either big men or wings; steady jump shot that should improve with time.


 7. A.J. Griffin | Portland Trail Blazers

Duke | Position: G/F | Height: 6-6
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 7 (4)

One of the best scorers in the Draft, thanks to an arsenal of moves and a solid midrange game; has the wingspan and size to become a lockdown defender.


8. Bennedict Mathurin | New Orleans Pelicans

Arizona | Position: SG | Height: 6-6
Status: Sophomore
Most Common: 7 (4)

A willing shooter who established himself as one of the nation’s best shooters off the catch; His skillset should translate well to the NBA, where spacing should help him get his shot.


9. Jalen Duren | San Antonio Spurs

Memphis | Position: C | Height: 6-11
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 7, 9 (3)

Young talent with big upside, a physically gifted big man who can finish around the rim; potential to become top defender who can protect the rim and defend the pick-and-roll.


10. Johnny Davis | Washington Wizards

Wisconsin | Position: SG | Height: 6-5
Status: Sophomore
Most Common: 10 (5)

A guard who likes to work in the paint, Davis has a midrange game that could translate well to the NBA; has shown the desire and passion to become solid defender.


11. Jeremy Sochan | New York Knicks

Baylor | Position: F | Height: 6-8
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 12 (4)

His abilities on the defensive end make him a unique option; his versatility gives him the chance to contribute immediately as a position-less big man.


12. Dyson Daniels | Oklahoma City Thunder

G League Ignite | Position: G/F | Height: 6-6
Status: G League
Most Common: 11 (3)

Australian playmaker who – like fellow countryman Josh Giddey – is an above-average passer with court vision and desire to facilitate for teammates; lockdown defender at the other end.


13. TyTy Washington Jr. | Charlotte Hornets

Kentucky | Position: G | Height: 6-3
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 11 (2)

Shifty point guard who can create his shot in a variety of ways; Only shot 33.7% on 3s, but his midrange game and court vision make him an intriguing option.


14. Ochai Agbaji | Cleveland Cavaliers 

Kansas | Position: G | Height: 6-5
Status: Senior
Most Common: 14 (3)

An elite shooter, shot 39.7% from 3-point land last season; At 22 years old, he’s older than other prospects, but also has experience from his time at KU.

Last updated: May 19 (3:04 a.m. ET)


MOCK DRAFTS

ESPN.com

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Keegan Murray
5. Jaden Ivey
6. Shaedon Sharpe
7. Jalen Duren
8. A.J. Griffin
9. Dyson Daniels
10. Johnny Davis
11. Bennedict Mathurin
12. Ousmane Dieng
13. Mark Williams
14. Malaki Branham

Last updated: May 17

The Ringer

1. Chet Holmgren
2. Jabari Smith
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Shaedon Sharpe
5. Jaden Ivey
6. Keegan Murray
7. A.J. Griffin
8. Johnny Davis
9. Bennedict Mathurin
10. Jeremy Sochan
11. Jalen Duren
12. Ousmane Dieng
13. Mark Williams
14. Dyson Daniels

Last updated: May 17

The Athletic

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Shaedon Sharpe
6. Keegan Murray
7. Jeremy Sochan
8. Bennedict Mathurin
9. A.J. Griffin
10. Johnny Davis
11. Jalen Duren
12. Dyson Daniels
13. Mark Williams
14. Ousmane Dieng

Last updated: May 17

SI.com

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Shaedon Sharpe
5. Jaden Ivey
6. Keegan Murray
7. Bennedict Mathurin
8. Dyson Daniels
9. Johnny Davis
10. Jalen Duren
11. A.J. Griffin
12. Jeremy Sochan
13. Ochai Agbaji
14. Malaki Branham

Last updated: May 17

Yahoo Sports

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Shaedon Sharpe
6. Keegan Murray
7. Bennedict MathurinJalen Duren
8. Johnny Davis
9. Mark Williams
10. Blake Wesley
11. A.J. Griffin
12. Ochai Agbaji
13. Tari Eason
14. Malaki Branham

Last updated: May 18

Bleacher Report

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Shaedon Sharpe
6. Keegan Murray
7. A.J. Griffin
8. Bennedict Mathurin
9. Jalen Duren
10. Johnny Davis
11. Dyson Daniels
12. Jeremy Sochan
13. Mark Williams
14. Malaki Branham

Last updated: May 18

NetScouts Basketball

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Keegan Murray
5. Jaden Ivey
6. Shaedon Sharpe
7. A.J. Griffin
8. Bennedict Mathurin
9. Johnny Davis
10. Jalen Duren
11. Dyson Daniels
12. TyTy Washington Jr.
13. Mark Williams
14. Ochai Agbaji

Last updated: May 18

CBS Sports (Gary Parrish)

1. Chet Holmgren
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Jabari Smith
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Keegan Murray
6. Shaedon Sharpe
7. Ochai Agbaji
8. Johnny Davis
9. Jalen Duren
10. Bennedict Mathurin
11. Jeremy Sochan
12. A.J. Griffin
13. Mark Williams
14. Malaki Branham

Last updated: May 18

CBS Sports (Kyle Boone)

1. Chet Holmgren
2. Jabari Smith
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Shaedon Sharpe
6. Keegan Murray
7. TyTy Washington Jr.
8. A.J. Griffin
9. Jeremy Sochan
10. Ochai Agbaji
11. Bennedict Mathurin
12. Ousmane Dieng
13. Jalen Duren
14. Johnny Davis

Last updated: May 18

SB Nation

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Jabari Smith
4. Jaden Ivey
5. A.J. Griffin
6. Shaedon Sharpe
7. Jalen Duren
8. Keegan Murray
9. Bennedict Mathurin
10. Johnny Davis
11. Dyson Daniels
12. Jeremy Sochan
13. Tari Eason
14. Malaki Branham

Last updated: May 17

USA Today/FTW

1. Chet Holmgren
2. Jabari Smith
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Shaedon Sharpe
5. Jaden Ivey
6. Keegan Murray
7. Jalen Duran
8. Jeremy Sochan
9. Johnny Davis
10. TyTy Washington Jr.
11. Bennedict Mathurin
12. A.J. Griffin
13. Dyson Daniels
14. Malaki Branham

Last updated: May 17

Basketball News

1. Jabari Smith
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Shaedon Sharpe
6. Keegan Murray
7. Bennedict Mathurin
8. A.J. Griffin
9. Jalen Duren
10. Johnny Davis
11. TyTy Washington Jr.
12. Mark Williams
13. Dyson Daniels
14. Malaki Branham

Last updated: May 18

* * *

ESPN Insider: Jonathan Givony

The Ringer: Kevin O’Connor

The Athletic: Sam Vecenie

SI.com: Jeremy Woo

Bleacher Report: Jonathan Wasserman

Yahoo Sports: Krysten Peek

NetScouts Basketball: Carl Berman

CBS Sports: Kyle Boone, Gary Parrish

SB Nation: Ricky O’Donnell

USA Today / FTW: Bryan Kalbrosky

Basketball News: Matt Babcock

 

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