These are fun times for me. I love setting projected performance to salary metrics. Contracts are typically based on past performance, which is, after all, the best data on individual players that we have available. But adding in the filter of possible substitutes in the open market, along with how else the money could be realistically spent in order to earn wins… That’s my kind of party! This is where the analytics really come into play. For example, a classic debate: Do you pay big money for the top-end running back … or sign a closer-to-average RB and use the remaining dough to upgrade the offensive line? Oftentimes, people argue such matters inside a vacuum, only considering one end of the discussion (the top-end running back) without seriously exploring the available options behind Door No. 2.
I’m endlessly fascinated by this stuff and could go on about the hypotheticals forever. But in the interest of providing an article — and not a textbook — I’m looking to focus my lens on a more distilled group of players today.
Merging 2022 contract information with my models estimating individual win-share totals for the coming season (using computer vision, advanced data, conventional statistics, Next Gen Stats, etc.), I’m spotlighting players who are so misaligned with their contracts that they could be due for a restructuring or release. You’ll find eight individuals from AFC teams below. Click here for the NFC list.
NOTE: All financial figures below were pulled from Over The Cap at publishing, with the players presented in alphabetical order.