What would it take for Democrats to keep the House?

Nearly a week after Election Day, control of the House remains uncertain.

Republicans are favorites to win the lower house with 20 seats still in play, but Democrats still have a fighting chance in the race to win the necessary 218 seats.

On Sunday afternoon, the Associated Press predicted Republicans would win 211 seats and Democrats 204 seats.

That means of the 20 contests remaining, Republicans only need seven more seats to clinch a majority, while Democrats need 14.

For Democrats to achieve this goal, they must win every race they currently lead and a few others where Republicans hold a slight advantage.

Just over half of the undecided races are in California, where all active voters receive mail-in ballots, creating a slower tabulation process. Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon each have two unnamed races, while Alaska, Maine, and New York each have one.

Here’s what Democrats should do to win a majority in the House:

Hold all nine seats with steady Democratic leads

Alaska as a whole: With just over 80 percent of the votes counted in Alaska’s ranking election, Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D) garnered 47 percent of the first-place votes. If she does not achieve a majority in the first round, officials will drop the lowest-ranked candidate and redistribute their supporters’ second-place votes, until one candidate achieves a majority. It’s possible that Peltola will cross the threshold in the first round, but even if she doesn’t, she’s close to winning a majority in a later round.

California 6th: Rep. Ami Bera (D) looks likely to be re-elected, but The Associated Press has yet to call the race, as nearly half of the votes have yet to be reported. But NBC and ABC both projected Bera as the winner, and he leads by 12 percentage points among votes already cast.

9th in California: Rep. Josh Harder (D) is up for re-election in this Central Valley district that includes Stockton, though he’s largely facing new voters after the redistricting. Harder currently leads Republican Tom Patti, who sits on the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors, by 13 percentage points with about half the votes counted.

California’s 21st: Further south in California’s Central Valley, including Fresno, Rep. Jim Costa (D) is running for reelection in a largely redrawn district that voted for Biden by double digits in 2020. With three-quarters of the vote, Costa leads by 9 points against former FBI special agent Michael Maher (R).

47th from California: In that district that includes Irvine and other parts of Orange County, Rep. Katie Porter (D), a leading progressive, holds a 3-point lead against Republican Scott Baugh. But 28% of the estimated vote has yet to be reported.

49th from California: Rep. Mike Levin (D) holds just a 5-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott in this Southern California district, which includes parts of Orange County and stretches south near San Diego. Twenty-nine percent of the estimated votes remain, but Levin has recently widened his lead, and Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected Levin as the winner.

8th from Colorado: With almost all the votes counted, Democrat Yadira Caraveo leads Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer by just 0.7 percentage points in the district, which includes parts of suburban Denver and stretches north into more rural areas. Although the run was not called, Kirkmeyer conceded the run on Wednesday.

2nd in Maine: Moderate Rep. Jared Golden (D) holds a 3-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Poliquin. Almost all votes have been tallied, but Maine uses a ranked voting system. Golden remains at 48.5%, slightly below the majority needed to win in the first round. Golden’s lead gives him an advantage in subsequent rounds once the others are eliminated, but the Democrat himself ousted Poliquin in 2018 after trailing in the first round.

6th from Oregon: In Salem and parts of suburban southwest Portland, Democrat Andrea Salinas has a narrow 1.8-point lead over Republican Mike Erickson. Nineteen percent of the votes have not yet been communicated. Salinas on Wednesday said she was confident she will come out on top once the votes are counted, while Erickson on Friday said his team remains optimistic.

Win the five out of six seats where the count is neck and neck

1st from Arizona: Rep. David Schweikert (R) is fighting to keep his more Democrat-friendly seat in the redistricting. Democrat Jevin Hodge leads by less than a percentage point with 14% of the estimated votes outstanding. The district lies within Maricopa County, including Scottsdale and other parts of the Phoenix area. The counting of mail-in ballots, which is expected to be completed by Tuesday, is expected to turn redder as time goes on.

6th from Arizona: Republican Juan Ciscomani, a former senior adviser to the Governor of Arizona, is ahead of former Arizona State Representative Kirsten Engel (D) by just 0.45%. Thirteen percent of the estimated vote remains in the district, which includes parts of Tucson. The winner will replace incumbent Representative Ann Kirkpatrick (D), whose seat was drawn more favorable to Republicans this year.

13th in California: Businessman John Duarte (R) is tied with moderate California State Representative Adam Gray (D) with just 0.11 percentage points separating the two candidates. But nearly 49% of the estimated votes remain in this Central Valley district that includes Merced.

California 22: Representative David Valadao is the only House Republican running this year who has impeached former President Trump and has not faced a Trump-backed primary challenger. But with just over half of the votes reported, Valadao holds just a 5-point lead over Democrat Rudy Salas, giving Democrats hope the seat could still be within reach. The district includes Bakersfield and parts of the Central Valley.

41st from California: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) leads Democrat Will Rollins by 1.5 points on Sunday in this Riverside County district. But about a third of the estimated vote remains up in the air, potentially leaving room for Democrats to overturn the seat. After the redistricting, Calvert’s headquarters now includes areas like Palm Springs, known for its LGBTQ community.

3rd from Colorado: Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) leads by a wafer-thin margin of just 0.35 percentage points. With nearly every vote counted, the small margin could trigger an automatic recount, Wasserman thought, that Boebert would likely win.

The other remaining districts all appear to be headed in the Republican direction.

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